Model diagnostics risk bankruptcy

UDC 336
Publication date: 25.02.2017
International Journal of Professional Science №2-2017

Model diagnostics risk bankruptcy

Zubarev Ilya Sergeevich
associate professor, department of finance, credit and economic analysis
Federal State budgetary educational institution in the Perm state agricultural Academy, Perm
Abstract: This article highlights and analyzes new for the Russian Federation bankruptcy individuals. The work presents an analysis of newly introduced controversial provisions of the Law on Insolvency (Bankruptcy), based on the views of reputable lawyers, as well as on the work of academics in the field of law and economics. Also, the author gives a brief description of the most bankruptcy proceedings individual with lingua interpretation of the rules, as required in the law. Drawing a parallel with the legislation of Western countries, discussed the positive and negative aspects of innovation. These features of the legal regulation, and on this basis derived generalizations associated with the objects and advantages of production in individual countries. The basis of the study served as a law "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)", demonstrated the imperfections of the legal framework, dedicated individuals. As a result of the material, the author concluded that the law is intended to regulate relations between citizens and the lending institutions to a greater extent. However, not all individuals who use innovations amendment in good faith, some not having the status of an entrepreneur can be a member of the cooperative, the shareholder, the owner of the share in the authorized capital of the entity, thereby deliberately expose themselves to action by authorized persons.
Keywords: insolvency, bankruptcy, an individual, the elimination of the debt, the creditor, the debtor, the arbitral tribunal

  1. Introduction.

The priority of any state acts to build a sustainable and stable development of the economic system. A key element of regulation of the economic system is the legislation on insolvency (bankruptcy), which is necessary to regulate the development of the country. An important problem in modern, dynamic economy is a bankruptcy prevention, timely detection and elimination. In the conditions of transformation of economic relations in the Russian Federation is particularly characterized by a high degree of uncertainty, which significantly increases the risk of bankruptcy of airlines as a result of exposure to both external and internal economic factors.

Bankruptcy As a legal instrument of improvement of the economic situation of the subjects of property turnover, primarily aimed at cleansing «economic horizon» from the inability to sustainable management of businesses.

Bankruptcy as a feature of the market mechanism is the most important factor in sound economic development, debt repayment guarantee and strengthen commercial relations. The presence of the institution of insolvency promotes economic recovery, prevent payments crisis and the functioning of insolvent legal persons.

The ubiquity of consumer credit as a major financial «consumer» tool for solving problems of the economy has led to the gradual spread of the regulations on insolvency and non-entrepreneurial attitude, which contributed to unifying the provisions of the insolvency law and the expansion of the subject of legal regulation of competition law, using basically the insolvency criterion.

financial management system at the enterprise must respond quickly to any changes in financial and economic activity of any enterprise, which is especially important in conditions of uncertainty and market instability [1].

  1. Materials and methods.

Model diagnostics risk of bankruptcy will allow management to form a strategy and develop operational solutions to assess and improve the economic and financial condition of the company. The use of a number of risk diagnostic models of bankruptcy is not appropriate in terms of the Russian economy for the following reasons:

— The use of different models lead to contradictory results.

— Predictive accuracy of the models is significantly reduced when used for the analysis of financial condition data for several years prior to the bankruptcy.

— Foreign models do not take into account the specifics of the economic situation and the organization of business in Russia, which differ, including accounting and tax law, which is reflected as in a set of sign-factors, and in the weight coefficients of them.

— In the models used data for one year, and did not take into account changes in the dynamics of indicators in a few years.

— The existing models used in his analysis of a limited range of indicators measuring the liquidity, solvency, profitability and, as a rule, extend or modify the Western models of 60-80 years of the 20th century.

The terms of the factors determining the risk of bankruptcy is much larger, it causes the need to improve its evaluation models by expanding it with additional parameters [2]

The conceptual approach of American law, aimed primarily at protecting the interests of the debtor, may be useful for the Russian legislator with certain modifications and correlations.

We believe that in terms of structural socio-economic crisis, taking place at the present historical stage of development of the Russian state, the uncontrolled flow of consumer credit, a parasite with a geometric progression in the Russian legislation on insolvency (bankruptcy) it would not be superfluous to provide that by analogy with US law , a joint institute of bankruptcy spouses, its purpose is primarily responsible for the increase in their financial situation.

A specific feature of the US bankruptcy system is the participation of special subject — the credit counselor who is assigned in each legal district. During the six months prior to filing an application for bankruptcy citizen must hold a conversation with a credit counselor, and after it to pass mandatory paid courses on personal financial management.

  1. Results and Discussion

The key problem of modern Russian society on the issue of quality of life — the lack of social and psychological attitude of people to acquire and maintain a constant high level of professional and general cultural education, without which it is impossible to build a knowledge economy.

The use of Western models for the Russian economy is difficult, therefore, domestic economists developed their own models of risk prediction of bankruptcy or adapt Western models. Among domestic diagnostic model of risk of bankruptcy of enterprises can distinguish models developed by RS Saifulin and GG Kadykova (1996) and AD Belikov and GV Davydova scientists of the Irkutsk State Academy of Economics (1997).

The model of the Irkutsk State Academy of Economics is four-factor model. Based on the regression equation calculates the integral index R risk of bankruptcy. Depending on its value concludes that the probability of bankruptcy.

We believe that the introduction of the Russian legal field of such a procedure — a conversation with a credit counselor — will enhance legal literacy and legal culture of Russian society as a whole that is an essential prerequisite for the efficiency of market mechanisms, including insolvency Institute (bankruptcy) of the citizen.


1. Aziz, M., Dar, H., Predicting corporate bankruptcy - where we stand?, Corporate Governance Journal, vol. 6, nr 1, 2006, pp. 18-33.
2. IS Zubarev, NA Pantyukhina Comparative analysis of the bankruptcy proceedings in the United Kingdom, the United States and Russia // Sustainable economic development of industrial enterprises collection of scientific papers on the materials of the international scientific-practical conference. 2015. pp 26-30.