# Economic-mathematical modeling of the optimal use of territories contaminated after the Chernobyl accident

UDC 349.6
Publication date: 26.03.2017
International Journal of Professional Science № 3-2017

# Economic-mathematical modeling of the optimal use of territories contaminated after the Chernobyl accident

Irina V. Sukhorukova
Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Mathematics Department of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation,
suhorukovaira@yandex.ru
Abstract: The consequences of the Chernobyl accident in April 1986 had a significant negative impact on the economy and the environment. Many types of pollution have adverse effects on the environment , but that the contamination is extremely dangerous for the population , the economy, regional ecological and economic systems, including the contamination of agricultural land. In the present study proposed economic- mathematical models that meet the criteria of optimality of agricultural production in the affected areas
Keywords: radiation contamination areas, radionuclide migration, social ecology, optimization of production, the development of econometric models

The consequences of the Chernobyl accident in April 1986 had a significant negative impact on the economy and the environment. Radioactively contaminated 150 thousand square meters. km in the former Soviet Union , mostly in Ukraine , Belarus and Russia . In the Russian Federation contaminated by radiation emissions of about 60 thousand square meters. km to the number of living up to 3 million people.

It should be noted that many types of pollution have adverse effects on the environment, but that the contamination is extremely dangerous for the population, the economy, regional ecological and economic systems, including the contamination of agricultural land [1].

Source of atmospheric deposition of radionuclides on the underlying surface in many situations of contamination, including radioactive, is the initial link migration. Getting on the earth’s surface, radionuclides are included in the biogeochemical processes of migration are redistributed in the soil cover, soil systems — ground and surface water, soil — the plants and later in food and biological circuits.

Speed ​​and direction of migration of radionuclides determined by a combination of factors , primarily , physical and chemical properties of radionuclides and natural conditions (mainly the type and condition of the landscape- geochemical system.

In different situations connected with the incidence of artificial radioactive substances into the environment , radionuclides in plants , including agricultural, tend to occur in two ways: directly on a roll of radioactive substances from the atmosphere to the surface of plants ( foliar or «air» way) and the assimilation of radionuclides from the soil mineral nutrition of plants (root , or » soil » way).

For the first time after the beginning of radioactive fallout (in the case of a single emission of pollution) the contribution of the aerial power is particularly high and 50-200 times may exceed the contribution of the soil source.

In the formation of the atmospheric reservoir of radionuclides foliar continues to be the leading way for 2-5 years, then to the extent of purification of the atmosphere, the contribution of both sources is comparable, and further contamination of products will be determined by the root assimilation of radionuclides from the soil.

In separate publications shown that quantitative characteristics of foliar pollution vary more widely than indicators of soil pollution, mainly because of greater variability of the factors influencing the process of foliar pollution: climatic conditions and biological peculiarities of plants during vegetation period [2,3].

Development of agricultural production in the area of radioactive contamination should be based primarily on the principles of social ecology. Given the availability of long-lived isotopes, radioactive and other contaminants, the irrationality implement costly remediation, ecological and economic irrationality production of contaminated products of agriculture, on the territories with contamination level of 5-15 CI/sq. km it is necessary to drastically reduce and restructure agricultural -to stop the agribusiness . Increase investment in agriculture development of «clean» areas by contaminated would provide additional net production of agricultural products.

In terms of radioactive contamination of the basic requirements of the schemes and land management projects , implementation of specific management systems in agricultural production are to establish definitive criteria for evaluating the radiological situation , which should also include limits contamination of the soil layer with / agricultural land radionuclides and standards for levels of specific radionuclides in crop production and livestock because of its primary completion and processing in the food and feed industry [4].

To do this , first of all , to make a detailed certification of productive land, including forests and shrubs, their classification according to the degree possible economic use , including the imposition of restrictions and exclusion.

Such a sequence of land management actions creates an opportunity for the development of specific parameters and content of activities on land management of agricultural enterprises.

In the process of designing a system of crop rotation and the organization of their territory must take into account many factors that influence the placement of crops in parts of the quantity and quality of the products. Accumulation of radioactive elements in the soil depends primarily on its mechanical structure . Plants , in turn , different react to accumulation of radioactive substances ( PB) in the soil. The least ability to accumulate RVs are cereals, most — culture with greater plant mass.

Under these conditions, the organization of the territory of rotations required to design sites, homogeneous on the degree of contamination for the arrangement of the crops with a view to reduce the degree of contamination of the final product harmful impurities.

In drawing up the plans for the transition to a crop rotation in this case must be considered precursors for the projected areas , keeping in mind that this , in turn, can significantly reduce the level of contamination of the final product . In view of the lack of experience of industrial activity on the radioactively contaminated areas we deemed it appropriate to conduct a more thorough study of the rational organization of agricultural production in the contaminated area.

In the present study , in terms of radioactive contamination of agricultural land, the peculiarities of accommodation crop rotation and crop established their main features , and the first hypothesis about the optimization of production in agricultural enterprises in these areas .

The basic steps for achieving this goal is :

1. Selection of the object of study that meets the conditions in the introduction.
2. Investigation of the influence of radioactive contamination on the placement of crops.
3. The establishment of the factors on which depend the quantity and quality of the products obtained by radioactive fallout contaminated area.
4. The development of mathematical economic models that meet the criteria of optimality of agricultural production in the affected areas.

The object model is a well-known agricultural enterprise at the time of the solution of the structure of production (land and production assets , the direction of specialization , the ratio of branches ) located in the contaminated area .
In terms of contamination of agricultural land may be considered optimal following two options cropping the following fields:
a) placement , which ensures minimal contamination of the whole (or a selected part ) of crop production ;
b) placement , which provides maximum profits for crop , provided that the production of each crop contamination is limited to a predetermined level .

In this study, the authors propose to develop two economic and mathematical models appropriate to set out ideas about the optimality criteria of agricultural production in contaminated areas .
The proposed theoretical approaches and methods allow to take into account the environmental factor at all stages of development and management decisions, avoid adverse environmental effects of economic activities and focus on the implementation of the main provisions of the Environmental Doctrine of Russia , in terms of environmental safety of agricultural production and sustainable environmental management.

Developed in the study of economic-mathematical models implemented as a set of programs ZEMR.

ZEMR complex is intended for distribution calculations crops in the fields and optimization models, management and support of the database (DB), containing the information necessary for the calculation. This complex is focused on the user having no special training in the field of programming. User interaction with the complex only occurs in the conversation mode.

In practice, we have developed economic and mathematical models planned to be used for calculations in the interest of several farms in a given region of the country , as well as information support management decision-making in agriculture in conditions of radioactive contamination at the district or provincial level. These circumstances necessitate the organization of a special database for storing information about the region’s farms , cultivated in these cultures , the possible radiation environment , etc. The creation of such a database will not only easily fill a set of models and optimization problems with new components belonging to the same source data , but also provide a relatively easy operation of complex programs, relating to the preparation and input data and parameters.

This study developed and experimentally tested database structure regarding branches of the plant, i.e. cropping and crop rotation in conditions of radioactive contamination of soils. Selecting a base mathematical software was done with the following requirements:

— The possibility of implementing modern information technologies;
— The presence of a high-level programming language with built-in work with databases ;
— The possibility of organizing an interactive data processing in the menu ;
— Possibility of displaying graphical information;
— Easy inclusion in complex programs of new features ;
— The inclusion of modules developed using well-known universal programming languages ​​;
— The availability of means to communicate with other computers ;
— The availability of complete documentation in Russian.

Based on a comparison of available texts programs as a basic software program package was developed modeling system «Inter- Expert». This system is a shell of an artificial intelligence system designed to solve economic problems and integrates three main components: » Data Manager » — the usual means of support and implementation of economic calculations, such as database management, electronic records, business graphics , etc. . ; » expert System » — a means of creating expert systems , rule-based inference conclusions; » natural language » — means of entering queries for information management and initiating consultation expert system using natural language.

Procedure for drawing up the plan for cropping fields using the simulation results can be schematically represented as follows. With some models generated the best option plan accommodation crops in the fields .
Model version of the plan is subject to the examination of an expert in the field of agricultural production , and then transformed in the direction recommended by the expert. After that the economic evaluation of deviations from the optimal plan transformed . The final decision is based on the results of economic evaluation . Following the procedure described leads to the construction of the final working version of the plan cropping as satisfying as mathematically formalized criteria and intuitive , based on the experience of the expert views.

Reviewed and adapted the criteria for the degree of pollution allowed to ensure the integration of environmental factors in all stages of preparation of decisions (public administration , forecasting of socio- economic development , the rationale for investment , design ) . Of great practical importance is the introduction of accounting for pollution of land in the procedures of environmental assessment of economic projects that will increase the responsibility of the investor for the consequences of economic activity area.

#### References

1. Sukhorukova I. V. Ecological and economic model for use of contaminated land, M.: Monograph, Pktipromstroy, 2000 – 280 р .
2. Zakharov , VM, EJ Krysanov Consequences of the Chernobyl Catastrophe: Environmental Health . Moscow: Center for Russian Environmental Policy , 1996, 170 р .
3 . Krivokhatskii AS and other Chernobyl trace accidental discharge of Unit 4 at Chernobyl some areas of the Leningrad , Novgorod and Bryansk regions . Moscow: Radiochemistry , v. 36 , no. 2 , 1994 . -186.
4. Sukhorukova I.V, Shved E.V. The application procedure of environmental audit in the system of ecological insurance of agricultural enterprises in contaminated areas. Financial Analytics: problems and solutions. 2014. No. 7. Pp. 9-13. Financial Analytics: problems and solutions. 2014. No. 7. Pp. 9-13.