Socio-economic development is the leading direction in the progression of society. An integral component is the demographic forecast, which in turn is divided into two options, depending on the chosen strategy, medium-term and long-term. The above mentioned component is a fundamental component in understanding the development strategy as a whole. The forecast data are fundamental for many spheres of society, including social components, social facilities and medical services, and are also necessary to clarify the needs of different age groups in medical services in all possible variations of the future.
The forecast of demographic status is a fundamental component of monitoring promising moments, the components of which are indicators of the number, structure of the population and parameters of population movement (fertility, mortality, migration). The prognostic data are based on prospective population calculations, calculations based on some hypotheses regarding the future dynamics of certain indicators of fertility and mortality .
Calculations for future years are usually carried out separately for the female and male contingent. Often, the difference in mortality rates by groups of society is sometimes quite significant, and therefore requires a detailed and comparative analysis. Let’s consider the projected variants of the number and population and its parts for 2023-2025.
In accordance with the low version of the forecast, the population in 2023, at the beginning of the year, will amount to 145420.7 thousand people, throughout the Russian Federation, which is 567.9 thousand less than in 2022, despite the decline in the population on the territory of our country. Analyzing the following forecast indicator, we see a decrease in the absolute number of citizens by 657.0 thousand people in 2024, which will amount to 144763.7 thousand people on the entire territory of our homeland. In 2025, at the beginning of the year, the population contingent, focusing on the low version of the forecast, will amount to 144032.2 thousand people, which is 731.5 thousand less than  the number of people living on our territory in 2024. Based on the data, we see that the population is declining throughout the Russian Federation, and from 2022 to 2025, the population is projected to decrease by 1956.4 thousand people.
In 2022, the urban population amounted to 109,252.7 thousand people, which is 74.8% of the total number of residents of the country. The population living in rural areas for the period of the beginning of 2022 is 36735.9 thousand inhabitants. The population residing in the village in 2023 is 36462.6 thousand people and this is 273.3 thousand less than in 2022. In 2024, 36174.6 thousand people live in the village, which is 25.0% of the total population of our homeland. It should be noted that, just as in previous years, a decline in the total population is noted and is predicted in the future, the percentage of urban and rural population is decreasing in 2025 and will amount to 35,874.9 thousand people, which is 0.1% less than in 2022 compared to 2022.
The population of the entire territory of the Russian Federation and its parts, namely the rural and urban population on average has not changed significantly from year to year. In 2022, an average of 145704.7 thousand people per year, for the period of the beginning of 2022, 145988.6 thousand people. In 2024, at the beginning of the year, the population of 144763.7 thousand people, an average of 144398.0 thousand people per year. The projected number of the population in 2025 in accordance with the low development strategy will be, at the beginning of the year, 144032.2 thousand people, on average for the year 143638.1 thousand people.
In accordance with the average version of population forecasting, which is the most realistic of the above, we see the following forecast. In 2023, at the beginning of the year, the population is projected to be 146372.4 thousand people, 36703.0 thousand people will live in the village, and 109669.4 thousand people in the city, the share of the urban population will be 74.9%. In the year following 2023, the total number will be 109,669,4 thousand people, the share of the urban population is estimated at the beginning of 2024 to be 75.0%, which is 0.1% more than in 2023. The year 20025 is expected to bring the following indicators, the population in the whole country will amount to 145,858,3 thousand people. The urban population will be 109524.2 thousand, rural 36334.1 thousand people – 24.9%, respectively, at the beginning of the year. On average, the entire population of the country will amount to 146254.2 thousand people per year, in 2023, rural — 36611.6 thousand people, urban — 109642.6 thousand people. The year 2024, approximately, will bring us the following indicators, the total number is 145997.1 thousand people, 109570.0 and 36427.1 thousand people urban and rural population, respectively. In 2025, according to the forecast with the average option, the population throughout the country will be 145698.9 thousand people, urban population — 109459.6, rural 36239.3 thousand people. The total population at the beginning of the year and on average for the year will change slightly, namely by 118.2 thousand people, in 2023. In 2025 the difference will be 159.4 thousand people.
The potentially high variant of forecasting is focuse,d on the regulatory goals of the state, including the fulfillment of tasks defined by the concept of demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025.
Accordingly, if we use the high version of the forecast as a foundation, we can expect that the total population in the geographical territory of the country will be — 147281.9 thousand people in 2023, at the beginning of the year. In 2024, the population will grow by 163.0 thousand people than in 2023. And in 2025 it will be 147582.4, which is 137.5 more than in 2024.
The rural population in 2023 will be 36947.4 thousand people, and the urban population 110334.5 thousand people, the urban population accounts for 74.9%, at the beginning of the year. In turn, in 2024, the urban population will amount to 75.0% or 110581.6 thousand people, the rural population will total 36863.3 thousand people, 84, 1 thousand people more than in 2023. It is predicted that in 2025 the population will increase by 300.5 thousand people compared to 2023 and will amount to 147582.4 thousand people at the beginning of the year. In turn, the population of rural areas will be 36778.4 thousand, and the urban population 110804.0 thousand or 75.1%.
On average, the population in comparison with the figures at the beginning of the goal in 2023 will not change significantly and will increase by 81.5 thousand people . The rural population will be 36905.3 thousand people, and the urban population 110458.1 thousand people. Compared to 2024, the population of the country is 150.3 thousand people less. In 2024, the average annual population will be 147513.7 thousand people. 36820.9 thousand and 110692.8 thousand rural and urban, respectively. In 2025, the total population will increase to 147648.1 thousand, which is 284.7 thousand more than in 2023. In 2025, in accordance with the projected indicators, the urban population will amount to 110909.9 thousand, and rural residents will total 36738.2 thousand. According to the forecast of the high variant, the number will grow, which will positively affect all spheres in the state and justify the concept of demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025.
To understand the prospects for population change, several different options are more often considered. In our review, we used three prognostic options: medium, high and low. Based on the data, we can note that in the first prognostic variant or high, target demographic indicators are used that correspond to the state’s policy regarding demography.
In turn, the average predictive variant of forecasting cannot be the middle of high and low, it is clearly close to high, and is usually considered more likely. The low projected variant of the population and its parts is not always similar to the high and medium-level variants.
The low projected variant of the population and its parts is not always similar to the high and medium-level variants. In conclusion, I would like to emphasize that the degree of correctness of forecasting future changes in the demographic situation is determined by the planned dynamics, which is directly subordinated to the demographic forecast, which includes both the population as a whole and its parts.
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2. Demoscope weekly : website. – URL: http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2022/0969/index.php (accessed: 15.01.2023)
3. Federal State Statistics Service : website. – URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru / (accessed: 15.01.2023 Federal State Statistics Service : website. – URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru / (accessed: 15.01.2023)
4. RANEPA Presidential Academy : website. – URL: https://www.ranepa.ru/nauka/issledovaniya-v-ramkakh-goszadaniya/?utm_source=yandex.ru&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=yandex.ru&utm_referrer=yand RANEPA Presidential Academy : website. – URL: